Part 1: Who should get the vaccine first? Sell to the highest bidder. The disease and recession go away faster.
Part 2: The cost of perfection. The vaccine was invented in a weekend, available in February. In free market land, we would not have had a pandemic, or a recession. 284 thousand people would be alive today. That is the cost of FDA "protection."
Part 1: Who should get the vaccine first?
Absolutely nobody* has mentioned in public the free market answer: Sell to the highest bidder.
(Or just allow some sales to the highest bidder. Don't put people in jail for selling some to the highest bidder,)
It's not as dumb as it sounds. Sure, there is an externality. A good vaccine policy might be to give it to those most likely to spread it to others, with the goal of swiftly reducing the prevalence of the disease. That argues for giving the vaccine in bars.
That is not our public policy. The entire discussion centers around who should be protected first, from a disease whose prevalence is taken as given. Old people, nursing homes, health care workers, essential workers -- the argument is not the externality. The argument is entirely who should get the individual benefit of protection from the vaccine. Just why "to the highest bidder" is wrong is then much less clear.
The case is stronger than usual, for there is a second way to avoid infection: Stay home. Social distance. Wear protective gear. So the question is not, really, "Who should be protected from the virus?" The question is, really, "Who should get a treatment that allows them to be out and about, risking contact with the virus, rather than protect themselves by traditional means?" It is really mainly an economic benefit, avoidance of the cost of other measures to stay healthy. There is an economic answer: people should be out and about first who generate the most economic benefit from being out. And, therefore, are willing to pay the most to get the vaccine.
To say nothing of the incentives. If vaccine companies can charge what they want to first adopters, and the cost to the rest of us is to stay home for a few more months, they can make boodles and boodles of money, incentivizing new vaccines even better. The government does not decide who gets the iPhone 12 first.
"But the rich will be able to afford it first," I hear you complain. Yes indeed. Principle one of economics, don't mess with the price system to transfer incomes. "But we won't make the income transfers, so we have to control prices and ration" I hear you complain. So, here we are in the midst of a pandemic, in the midst of an incredibly dangerous economic situation, with $5 trillion of federal debt in the rear view window, the main point of fixing prices and rationing vaccines is... to transfer incomes.
If it goes to the highest bidder, then the highest value activities, that benefit most from reduction in social distancing, come back faster. I don't know what those are, but pretty much by definition, the economy recovers faster. That brings back jobs a lot faster than stimulus checks. Heck tax it and transfer the money to people who choose to stay home.
I'll stretch free market nirvana this far: If the government wants to hand out vaccines to whoever it thinks should go first, ok, let it buy the vaccine on the free market, on budget, paid by visible taxes, and hand it out. But it should not forbid anyone who wants it from paying for it, nor forbid vaccine makers from selling to whoever wants it, to artificially keep the price down and hide the immense transfer in its actions. Looked at for what it is -- only and entirely a ban on private transactions -- it is amazing that we meekly put up with such wholesale trampling of our rights to transact, to property, and to pursue our own health. In the most important market in the world right now, vaccine producers may only sell to governments.
No, it's not as dumb as it sounds. At least economics should start with "to the highest bidder," and come up with some well documented market failure, and a public allocation system that mimics the highest bidder allocation. That nobody dares say this in public, not even my favorite libertarians (that I have seen -- send links to anyone else nuts enough to say this in public!) is a little surprising. What happened to America, and to economics, that absolutely nobody seems to even question the holy writ that drug companies shall only sell to governments, governments shall allocate vaccines, and severe legal penalties shall accrue to anyone who doesn't like it?
Instead... Well, here is (second hand and I may get this wrong, corrections welcome) how Stanford is going to do it. Our first allocation goes to health care. OK, that is a likely answer to "if Stanford had to bid for it, what is our highest value use." The hospital system, however, can't figure out who within health care should get it. Is it "fair" for doctors to get it first, but not custodial workers? The crack team of medical ethicists couldn't come up with an answer. So they're going to do it randomly. I don't have to tell you in the middle of a pandemic who gets it first under the discipline of actually having to bid a market clearing price to get it first. Watch the normally crystal clear Scott Gottlieb run around in circles on the pages of the Wall Street Journal trying to figure out who should get the vaccine when. Well, without a guiding principle, there is no where to go but circles.
In India, meanwhile, that bastion of... informal.. if not free markets, it appears you can sign up to buy the vaccine, for about $8. Markets in everything, as Marginal Revolution says documenting the story, but not here.
Part 2: The cost of perfection
We had the vaccine the whole time, documents David Wallace-Wells in New York's intelligencer, documenting and popularizing a known but overlooked fact.
Moderna’s mRNA-1273, which reported a 94.5 percent efficacy rate on November 16, had been designed by January 13. This was just two days after the genetic sequence had been made public
the Moderna vaccine design took all of one weekend. It was completed before China had even acknowledged that the disease could be transmitted from human to human, more than a week before the first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States. By the time the first American death was announced a month later, the vaccine had already been manufactured and shipped to the National Institutes of Health for the beginning of its Phase I clinical trial.
Even under operation Warp Speed -- a truly commendable accomplishment of the Trump Administration that, maybe a year or so from now the TDS crowd might acknowledge -- the only thing we have been waiting for is FDA certification: Randomized clinical trials to prove safety and efficacy, before anyone is allowed to take the vaccine.
What's the free-market way? A drug company can sell a vaccine on January 14, and you can buy it, without fear of going to jail.
Sure, there is an FDA, and a Federal Trade Commission which monitors drug labeling. The vaccine has to say "this is totally untested, and has not been proven safe or effective in clinical trials" and offer a stack of paper about known risks. You sign a stack of consent forms. If you take it, you're enrolled in our big national database -- you just volunteered for the national non-random clinical trial. (We don't collect much data on drugs that are out there). The FDA rapidly collects information. At the same time, randomized clinical trials are going on. Drugs can give more and more hopeful labels as the results roll in. At some point after Phase III and FDA review, a drug can get the official FDA seal of approval. No, insurance and medicare don't pay for non-approved stuff. This is free-market nirvana, you pay for unapproved medicines if you want them (see part 1). There is an FTC and a tort system. Drug companies that sell things they know are unsafe or ineffective pay billions.
What happens in free market nirvana? Yes, there are quite a few more cases of people who are hurt by side effects. Not that many actually, as we are following the early adopters carefully and broadcasting data as it comes out. Quite a few useless drugs get tried a bit more widely.
But, going on the current assumptions that these made in a weekend vaccines work, we would not have had a pandemic at all. Every job lost, every business closed, all 284 thousand US deaths, $5 trillion of federal spending, the biggest (though mercifully short) recession in US history, would not have happened. All of this cost stems from one thing -- the ban on using any medicine before the FDA approves it.
Reflect also on the vast asymmetry of effort. Two or three vaccines were invented in a weekend. Then we spent the next year testing those few, not developing better ones. The vaccines have serious side effects. Think how much better we would be now if we were using vaccines that had been developed... in the next weekend alone, to say nothing of 8 months of constant innovation. This ratio of invention vs. testing is off by orders of magnitude.
Now, free market nirvana: The developers start selling the vaccine to wiling guinea pigs on Monday morning, as well as running randomized trials. In a matter of weeks some side effects get noticed. They or other developers start tweaking and building better vaccines! In a rough tumble of competition, within a few months we have much better vaccines. But you can't try anything at scale without the one-year FDA approval -- and that by itself is a miracle compared to the usual multi-year process.
The benefits of FDA protection -- the prohibition of selling drugs before full randomized clinical trials have been run and then painstakingly reviewed -- are not zero. They are the people who are not hurt by the slightly larger (than in clinical trials) experimentation with new drugs.
The costs of this FDA "protection" are immense: In the free-market world, we would not have had a pandemic.
Maybe free markets aren't so dumb after all.
(We also would have had home tests months ago, which at zero side effect to anyone would have slowed if not stopped the pandemic. But you all know that story.)
Wallace-Wells:
our approach to the pandemic here raises questions, too, about the strange, complicated, often contradictory ways we approach matters of risk and uncertainty during a pandemic — and how, perhaps, we might think about doing things differently next time. That a vaccine was available for the entire brutal duration may be, to future generations trying to draw lessons from our death and suffering, the most tragic, and ironic, feature of this plague.
Indeed.
Update
DWAnderson commenter below makes an excellent point that I am embarrassed to have omitted. I need to recheck my free market catechism. To restate it, ok, keep the current allocation system, which we now realize is about transferring income. But don't give out vaccines, give out the right to receive the vaccine. And allow people to trade that right--properly, remove the legal prohibition against trading the right, the threat of being thrown in jail for taking money in return for your place in line. If the Stanford hospital custodian wants to sell his right to a hedge fund manager, and take the month off in quarantine in a nice hotel, let him. Everyone is better off -- the magic of trade.
Forbidding ex-post trade is one of the silliest of market interventions.
From Twitter, the first person in the UK to get a vaccine. She's 90. She looks like a very nice lady. But what is the chance she gives the virus to anyone else, goes out to a bar or a party, works at an ICU, or gets the economy going with her vaccination? How much would it cost to protect her from covid by other means? Of course I want her to have a vaccine as soon as possible, but when we only have so many doses is it faintly reasonable that this is the single most important person in the whole UK to get the first vaccine?Update 3:
"A vaccine auction" by Romans Pancs
Steven Landsburg on trading the right to get a vaccine.
*Update 4.
I hadn't looked hard enough. Tyler Cowen had it back in May. Of course.
I think there are efficiency reasons why the vaccine shouldn't be allocated by free-market.
ReplyDelete(a) externality - much of the cost of younger people catching the disease is the risk of them passing it onto someone who passes it onto someone who is older. Carefree young people don't internalise this externality and don't have too much money, so vaccinating wealthy business people doesn't reduce social spread or their personal risk.
(b) Lack of information - there has been all sorts of crazy news about the vaccine and the perceived risk of death doesn't slope anything like as steeply as the actual mortality figures. Interesting question about whether this is scare-tactic from authorities trying to encourage young-people to stay at home, or just information not being processed that efficiently. The impact of this is that free-market situation young/middle-aged people getting the vaccine because they overestimate actual risk before less wealthy care-home residents that underestimate the actual risk.
(c) Social incentives - I think normal free-market argument that higher market price increases supply may not apply as well to Covid. Many people (including you with blog posts and Covid models) have been very focussed on doing what they can to solve this social problem. This is also evidenced by vaccine availability in months rather than years. I accept the argument that vaccine costs are dwarfed by economic harm but I imagine everyone involved in the manufacturing process are trying to move mountains already because they can tell how many lives are at stake, and the social backlash they will face following criticisms.
Beyond this, I think there is a fairness argument here, particularly since the pandemic has hit working-class jobs the hardest, or required them to continue to work and take risks. It feels gross if a banker is paying for vaccine so they can go to the pub whilst an Amazon warehouse worker continues to risk infection and work more inefficiently. I think the perceived unfairness of situations like this outweigh possible efficiency benefits of price-mechanism.
The UK approach of identifying risk-groups, allocating according to priority and vaccinating 25% of population that represents 99% mortality risks seems like a good approach to me for reasons discussed above. I'm normally very pro market-pricing for allocation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639
https://www.ejgm.co.uk/download/perceived-risk-of-covid-19-pandemic-the-role-of-public-worry-and-trust-7856.pdf
"It feels gross if a banker is paying for vaccine so they can go to the pub whilst an Amazon warehouse worker continues to risk infection and work more inefficiently."
DeleteThere is nothing intrinsically moral, let alone desirable about equality of outcomes, and it most definitely is not 'fair.' More to the point, while you start with this claim that you're making a fairness argument, you end with a different argument about managing public perception of fairness. While I understand politicians will likely do something at least moderately stupid from a policy standpoint to achieve exactly this objective of managing public perception, I regard this as deplorable fact, not as an argument to actually do it!
We don't have any evidence that vaccinated people don't transmit the virus. All we know, after all these months, is that vaccinated people are 90 something less likely to develop symptoms and do not suffer relevant side effects.
Delete"Externality" is a concept that is used much more often than it should. To the point that we will be better off banning the concept: its inappropriate use cause much more harm that is, very rare, appropriate use prevents.
"Unfairness" is a concept extremely difficult to define and almost impossible to agree on.
To avoid your problem, think of your savings as the difference between the monetary value of what you have contributed to society minus the monetary value of what you have consumed from others contributions (actually Jesus Fernandez Villaverde was working on a monetary theory along those lines if I remember right. It was a long time ago, not aware of the results). Money would then be the "ledger" of this universal free exchange system.
When you define your concept of "fairness" you are just putting your personal "sense of justice" in place of this ledger system. The burden of proving that your system is better is on you. We have developed very sophisticated home heating systems, indoor plumbing, cars, medical treatments, air travel, .... following the system of providing these service/products first to the people who could afford them. It has worked great for all of us. So, you have to be sure that your "personal perception of fairness prioritization system" match this extremely impressive track record.
Socialist in the Soviet Union had the same debate when dealing with relative prices. After all, why Tom Brady should be paid many times the salary of a doctor or of an Amazon warehouse worker? he does not produce nothing useful. They come up with a committee of extremely clever Russian economist (the Gosplan) charged with the task of establishing all the relative prices in the Russian economy (obviously with a criterion based on "fairness"). As you are probably aware it worked out terribly bad (ironically, they ended up using Sear's catalogs to stablish relative prices).
I am always amazed by the fact that we keep trying schemes that we have tested before and know, for sure, that did not work at all.
"We don't have any evidence that vaccinated people don't transmit the virus."
DeleteThere is a clear public health consensus that vaccination reduces community transmission. This is also just common sense. You have to have a very strange model of the world for this not to be the case and requiring vaccine trials to measure this endpoint seems similar to me to requiring a double-blind clinical trial to test effectiveness of parachutes on aeroplanes :).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm#:~:text=While%20vaccine%20effectiveness%20(VE)%20can,matched%20to%20the%20flu%20vaccine.
This externality, combined with the demonstrated inability of public to understand how steeply mortality skews with age (already linked above) suggests to me that UK-type system allocating based on age and risk factors is most efficient.
Philosophical debate about 'fairness' of market-systems is interesting. I'm pretty pro-market, but not quite as extreme as you are. This seems to be a question of values rather than facts, I agree about this one.
"We keep trying schemes that we have tested before and know, for sure, that did not work at all".
All recent public vaccination programs I know of haven't used the price system, and have been heavily encouraged and subsidised by the government. This is a tried and tested way of eradicating infectious diseases. I don't want to switch to this for other goods, but for vaccines it seems like a reasonable approach.
"the demonstrated inability of public to understand how steeply mortality skews with age”
DeleteIndeed! in fact, the relevant question is not what the mortality rate from Covid19 for each age range is but how does covid-19 increase my probability of dying at my age.
Surprisingly enough between 02/01/2020 and 12/02/2020 the probability of dying increased about the same (8.5-10.5%) for all age groups above 45 (compare with around 3-5% between 15 and 45).
So certainly, you should fear death more being 85 than being 45. But your "increase of fear of death" during the abovementioned period (life with COVID-19) should be about the same.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htmrtality skews with age"
Also, re the cost of approval. The public health issue here is how astonomical the life-expectancy gains from MMR, polio and other vaccination programs are. I agree that that challenge trials was a no-brainer, and there was an argument for allowing older people to take vaccine once we realised how steeply mortality skewed with age but there is some not-insignficant risk of undermining public faith in vaccination schemes if there were some heath impacts of an untested vaccine, and this could have pretty crazy implications for future child-mortality rates if we scare parents away from participating in vaccine schemes.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the approach we had got this tradeoff right, but there is a quite significant cost of 0 regulation approach.
The point is not that a 0-regulation approach has no cost. The point is that, very likely, has a significant lower cost than the “waiting for FDA approval” approach. Which as John points out is just huge!
Delete"0" is not the only cost that is better than "huge", "significant" is also better than "huge".
We prefer "huge caused by a governmental agency" vs "significant (if "significant" were the case) cause by the free market" because we suffer a very significant (and very expensive) antimarket bias.
My point is that untested vaccine --> lots of bad side effects --> loss of trust in vaccination --> lower vaccination rates for MMR, polio and other vaccines is astronomical.
DeleteIt's hard to assign exact probabilities to all of these but it's how much of modern expectancy gains come from vaccination projects, plausibly +10 years
"America’s prevalence against infectious and parasitic illnesses denote a notable accomplishment for the medical community. [3] Researchers have developed vaccines to alleviate several conditions, such as measles and polio. As a result, more United States children mature into adults. This improvement accounts for a 60-percent increase in life expectancy among women."
https://online.regiscollege.edu/blog/public-health-initiatives-life-expectancy-immunizations/
"If there were some heath impacts of an untested vaccine, and this could have pretty crazy implications for future child-mortality rates if we scare parents away from participating in vaccine schemes."
DeleteIs this pop-psychology or are there any studies to back the "Regulation theater increases social trust" hypothesis? Because I know vaccine hesitant people around me ( ranging from people who don't trust the Vaccine because of Trump to those brainwashed by TikTok videos claiming that MRNA vaccines will change your DNA) to whom all of this doesn't make much of a difference.
Not criticizing your common sense, just wondering out loud if we there was any difference in social trust between what the FDA allowed vs running Phase 1, 2 and 3 all in parallel with human challenge trials.
Also, now that China and Russia have released promising results, I'm wondering how much of a difference Operation Warp Speed made to the Vaccine project.
At the very least, I fail to see how weeks of analysis of data the average American simply does not understand help at all with public assurance that this thing is safe.
DeleteThe meeting had a lot of solar people debate the efficacy results of a vaccine. No outsider would be able to understand a sentence of what was going on without a fairly detailed background in immunology and statistics.
I'm not saying Americans are dumb, I'm saying the specialized knowledge required to understand this stuff is fairly complicated and specific to this field.
If you release it right away, and people can see, oh my friend got it, he seems fine, that would be useful. Delaying everything so smart people can discuss incomprehensible details no one understands DOES NOTHING to calm the public. If those discussions are necessary they are necessary. But I am growing really tired of the excuse that it is needed to calm the public, whatever that means.